Draft annotated agenda of the workshop organized by the Center for Central Asia Research of Corvinus University of Budapest

27 February – Corvinus, “E” Main building, III. auditorium

10.00 Opening words by Mr. Péter Kaderják, Special Strategic Adviser of the Rector of Corvinus University

10.15 Keynote address by Ambassador Peter Burian, Special Representative of the European Union for Central Asia

10.30 Improving economic governance of Central Asian countries to take full advantage of geopolitical and geoeconomic change
Introduction by Mr. Batir Tursunov, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan; Mr. Esen Aydogdyew, President of the International University of Humanities and Development of Turkmenistan (tbc.); Nargis Khassenova, Director of the Central Asian Studies Center at KIMEP University, Zarema Shaukenova, Director of Kazakhstan Institute of Strategic
Studies (tbc)
After the inevitable economic slump that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries managed to stabilize their economies and several of them posted impressive growth. Economic development has mainly been based on the export of fossil fuels, minerals and agricultural commodities, complemented by remittances of labour migrants in the case of non-energy exporting countries. Low
energy prices that are likely to stay for a longer period of time are exposing the limits of this economic strategy. The lack of capital, technology, highly trained workforce and large distance from markets have hindered efforts to diversify economies. Central Asian countries might need to explore new ways to increase competitiveness, reduce vulnerability to the volatility of commodity prices, accelerate transition to a knowledge based economy and find niches in international value chains. Improved regional cooperation would greatly facilitate these efforts and the continued conduct of balanced foreign and security policies.

11.15 Coffee break

11.30 Sustainable Development Goals: a UN framework to promote environmental and social sustainability of economic development and investment in infrastructure Introduction by Mr. Andrey Vasilyev, Deputy Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
On-going geoeconomic change in Central Asia offers important new opportunities for the countries of the region to accelerate progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The UN, working with Central Asian governments and their partners in the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union should promote the integration of environmental and social considerations into economic development strategies and large-scale investment in transport infrastructure. Sub-regional cooperation among the five Central Asian countries, supported by the UN, can usefully complement larger integration processes.

13.00 End of the session

13.15 Lunch

15.00 The role of China: the Belt and Road Initiative, opportunities and risks
Introduction by Professor David Q. Pan, Executive Dean, Schwarzman College, Tsinghua University China’s Belt and Road Initiative offers an opportunity for Central Asian countries to pursue new economic strategies. Promising massive investment in infrastructure, BRI can be the most important driver of economic growth. Both China and its Central Asian partners need to make efforts to maximize the benefits of BRI for the economies and societies of the latter and ensure the safety and profitability of long-term investments by the former. An important precondition of success is improved governance, better institutions and the rule of law. As long term investments need stability and security, soft security guarantees by China can play an important role in a region that continues to face such transnational threats as violent extremism and drug trafficking. China, emerging as the dominant economic power of the region needs to make efforts to develop a balanced, mutually advantageous, win-win partnership with Central Asia in order to complement its economic influence with comparable soft power.

16.15 Coffee break

16.30 The role of the Russian Federation: an important partner in the political, economic and security fields
Introduction by Mr. Andrey A. Kazantsev, Director of the Analytical Center of Moscow State Institute of International Relations
The Russian Federation continues to play an indispensable role in the economic development and stability of several Central Asian countries as an export market and the provider of jobs for millions of labour migrants, who’s remittances constitute a significant part of the GDP of several countries. In addition, it has historic ties to the region, offers “hard security” guarantees for some countries, wields considerable soft power and makes serious efforts to strengthen regional integration through the expansion of the Eurasian Economic Union. The long-term success of the EEU, like that of BRI, depends on the ability of member countries to improve their business climate through efforts to achieve good governance and the rule of law. Security guarantees offered by the Russian Federation will continue contributing to the security and stability of countries facing cross-border threats of violent extremism and organised crime. The Russian Federation needs to develop a balanced and equal partnership with all five Central Asian countries amidst geopolitical and geoeconomic changes that will reduce its relative
economic clout in the region.

18.00 End of the session

19.00 Dinner

28 February, Corvinus “C” New building, Library, Aquarium-room

10.00 The European Union: the indispensable third partner
Introduction by Ambassador Peter Burian, Special Representative of the European Union for Central Asia
The EU has been an important market and the source of technology for Central Asia. Since neither China nor the Russian Federation have engaged in capacity building in Central Asia to strengthen good governance and the rule of law, the European Union has been the main provider of this indispensable assistance. The chances of success of both BRI and EEU would be considerably enhanced by the continuation and expansion of EU assistance. The EU will remain a large export market and source of technology. Its GSP provides assistance to poverty eradication, sustainable development and good governance to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The development of Eurasian transport corridors will open up new possibilities for trade and investment in Central Asia. Maintaining active political cooperation with the EU would allow Central Asian countries to continue a balanced foreign and security policy.

11.15 Coffee break

11.30 The economics and politics of the Belt and Road Initiative: a Case of the 16+1 Initiative
Introduction by Professor Grzegorz W. Kolodko, Kozminski University, TIGER Cooperation between China and Central and East-European countries is gaining momentum. In 2016, total trade between China and the 16 CEE countries increased by 9.5% while China’s trade with Europe and the world as a whole dipped in the same period. China pledged USD 3 billion new investment during the 16+1 meeting in 2017 in Budapest. The 16-+1 initiative provides a relevant case study on the economics and politics of the Belt and Road Initiative for other regions, including Central Asia.

13.00 End of the session

13.15 Lunch

15.00 Research cooperation: facilitating sustainable development, security and stability amidst geopolitical and geoeconomic change
Introduction by Marton Krasznai, Scientific Director, Center for Central Asia Research of Corvinus University
The V4 countries, like other new EU member states, have shared a similar – but not identical – political and economic system with Central Asia for four decades. Both groups of countries had to cope with the problems of political and economic transition. Through research and educational cooperation V4 countries and other new EU member states can provide assistance in developing new economic strategies and improved economic governance that are based on the specific historic, economic, social conditions of Central Asian countries. The experience of subregional cooperation in the V4 framework is highly relevant for Central Asian countries. It offers an effective and simple model for formulating and promoting the interests of a group of smaller countries within larger integration processes.

16.30 End of the session

19.00 Dinner